Petrol & diesel engine ban

[SP250]

Announced today, the IC engine (petrol & diesel) will be banned from 2040 in new vehicles in the UK and France.

23 years left to perfect the fuel cell, so we can convert water to hydrogen and still run our "old" engines then.

Unless you like electric cars and bikes.........mind you I'll be 85 then and the 11S will probably be a bit too heavy for me to push around!

[kfrogzx7]

Trouble is petrol might get harder to find and considerably more expensive before then ?
There might be all sorts of exemptions and things for "classic" and "vintage" bikes by then I suppose.

[fontana]

I'm not worried about 2040, because I'll be 75 then.
I am worried about what's going to happen in the run up.
As was said, petrol could become scarcer and more expensive.
Car makers will be more than aware of the impact on sales from this point on, and so will be scrabbling to get fully electric cars established much sooner than 2040.
In the next five years I reckon.
With this in mind, expect the value's of petrol vehicles to plummet in that time frame.
Including bikes.
After hearing this I've decided that in three years I'm going to return my 9T as per the terms of my PCP, and am not going to get another new bike.
There is no point now that the writing is on the wall.
I'm going to see out the rest of my motoring days on old cheap bikes and cars.

[Paul]

...but in three years time your R9T will be (compared to a new bike) an "old and cheap bike", that you will presumably still love. Why would the prospect of no new petrol bike sales in 2040 put you off keeping that in 2020?

Looking forward to the construction boom as they build the electricity generating capacity for us all to recharge our new electric cars over the coming years. That seems to be the missing part of the equation in this grand plan for 2040...

[Grip Fast]

I am worried - I'll only be 90.

[nab 301]

I think the fuel source is the least of our worries , hasn't the end of self drive vehicles (at least in cities ) been predicted in a similar or shorter time frame?

[fontana]

...but in three years time your R9T will be (compared to a new bike) an "old and cheap bike", that you will presumably still love...

You and I clearly have different idea's as to what constitutes old and cheap.
For me, it's my 18 year old R1100RS that cost me £3,000 and does everything I need.

...Why would the prospect of no new petrol bike sales in 2040 put you off keeping that in 2020? ...

Because as I said, now that the announcement has been made, I reckon things are going to start changing dramatically well before 20 years.
I reckon about 5/10 years.
It's just a guess, but I remember the pace that mobile phone technology moved forward in a very short space of time.
The two are comparable.
I bought my 9T to see out my riding days on..
Something I could still own and take pleasure in 20, possibly even 30 years from now.
There is no way that's going to happen now.
When the first electric bike appears, capable of 350 miles on one charge, it's all over for petrol motorcycles.
I'll need to drop 6k on my 9T to own it outright in 3 years.
I reckon it'll have another 5 years before it's worthless.
Take this 20 years figure with a huge sack of salt.
Things are going to change a lot sooner than that.

[milleplod]

There are vast, vast numbers of people in the UK, and worldwide, who won't be able to afford the new technology. Should any government contemplate causing those people to, in effect, become immobile in such a short timespan - and let's not forget just how many people have 'old' tech vehicles not as toys but as tools that they actually need - there would be chaos beyond imagination. There's no public transport infrastructure to replace the way in which people use cars, there's too much investment in 'old' tech for it to be killed off relatively quickly.

Where's the bloke on £20k a year who drives a round-trip to work of 40 miles going to find the funding to put him in a shiny new hybrid? My neighbour has a commute of 35 miles each way - same thing, price him off the road and he's bolloxed, the state picks up the pieces. Etc etc etc.

There's no way our current tech is going to die quickly, manufacturers have way too much invested for it to happen. Stopping new production doesn't mean the end, the public have too much invested for it to happen. Hopefully, technology will now advance more quickly, courtesy of a shove from the politicians, but there's a much bigger picture they know they will have to address.

Pete

[fontana]

There are vast, vast numbers of people in the UK, and worldwide, who won't be able to afford the new technology.

I hear yah, but technology can move at a frightening pace when the pressure is on.
The above was true of mobile phones in the 90's.
Fast forward 20 years, and we can buy them in Teco's for a tenner.

[milleplod]

True, but they weren't something foisted on the public - takeup was voluntary, and although we now accept them as an important part of our lives, I'm pretty sure I'd survive without one, as inconvenient as it might be!

If I was told that within, say, 2/3 years, I'd have to bin my car and buy/lease something electric, I'd have a problem. If the government, in that same timespan, decided to simply price me off the road, I'd have a problem. Multiply that problem by a few millions, and things start to grind to a halt. Who would be taking my 84-year old mum to her doc and hospital appointments, for example? Taxis? Oh, hang on, would they be expected to move to new 'tech', or exempted? Public transport would no doubt be exempt....except it doesn't run where, and when, mum needs to move around. Multiply that by a few millions....you get the picture.

Current tech is here for a fair old while yet, probably made even cleaner over the years. The manufacture of replacement tech is very far from clean itself, our power grid struggles as it is, if we believe what we read. I'm not concerned at all for my own enjoyment of old tech, and my practical usage of it. My daughter will 'acclimatise' to things as they change gradually, like all youngsters do.

Pete

[SP250]

Going back to my original post, the fuel cell will still allow the IC engine to work, but produce vastly cleaner emisions if running on hydrogen.
Just a change of ecu parameters for a different fuel.

Electric vehicles are not "clean" as the powerstations are still using fossil fuels, gas, oil and coal to generate the juice.
Unless they all go nuclear fuelled or green i.e. wind, wave HEP and solar.

Enjoy you bikes now chaps, as the end is nigh and probably a lot quicker than 2040.

[fontana]

True, but they weren't something foisted on the public - takeup was voluntary,

The research I've been reading suggests that the only hindrance to people fully embracing the technology "voluntarily" are current limitations.
That is to say range, and charging.
Same with mobile phones when they were the size of briefcases and had almost no coverage.
I've also read that car makers are working together on a generic battery, the idea being that in the future you'll pull into a fuel station where your battery will simply be replaced with a freshly charged one in the same time it takes to fill a car with petrol.
Result will be unlimited mileage with no need to charge.
No different to running a vehicle now.
Once that's been developed and prices become competitive, research suggests that people will fully embrace the electric vehicle.
Why wouldn't you.
The debate as the the pro's & con's centre's on when we will get there, not if.
My belief is inside the next 10 yrs.

Enjoy you bikes now chaps, as the end is nigh and probably a lot quicker than 2040.

Believe it

[John Coles]

For me the give away is 2040. Current gov just reneged on free school breakfasts outlined in the last manifesto how many other election promises have gone the same way in my lifetime? Plenty of time & gov changes to kick this into the long grass too.

[Luke2184]

How could you have electric HGV,s that cover thousands of miles on batteries, plus I think 90% of new vehicles then will be hybreds so I don't see petrol going anywhere though I see it becoming expensive.

[Grip Fast]

A friend of mine has a Tesla - yes way out of reach of most mortals - but the technology will become affordable. It is a beast of a car, the acceleration is phenomenal. So range and practicality? Well he says, on a long drive, he stops after about 150 miles (range is over 200), plugs it into a Tesla rapid charging point, and goes for a coffee and pee. Twenty minutes later, he gets in the car and off he goes (when describing this, he goes into the old "for mash, get Smash" advert but his is about not having to queue up to put a tube into his car and pump expensive petrol into it.

So I was thinking 150 miles isn't far before stopping, but on a recent holiday to Scotland, I was needing to stop after about 120 miles, taking 20 minutes to stretch the legs, have a coffee, etc. In the 320-mile journey, we stopped twice, and that is the usual pattern for us (I just hadn't thought about it before). When 200+ miles is easily attainable and 20mins rapid charge time is possible with an affordable car, I would consider going electric.

As far as electric bikes are concerned, I might need to put an ice lolly stick against the spokes to make an engine noise, like I did as a child.