I think there are several aspects of the apparent plummet in S/H values:
The market seems to be awash with fairly new bikes, which although bike sales must be down on what they were decades ago - reflect the number of people who are actually on the roads. PCP has brought new-car/bike ownership to people who would never traditionally contemplate a new purchase (for reasons of justification, principle or affordability)
If someone buys a bike new, at say £15k, and tries to sell that privately after 1 yr (or longer) - he might have expected to realise £12k? (Not sure of realistic fig, but no matter).
But - He is pitching that bike to a buyer who has the option of coming up with £12k cash, take a loan for it, or............. get a brand spanking new bike on PCP for a small deposit and £150/month. It may not be the buyer’s usual market (the new-bike purchase) - but is suddenly woo’d by the seduction of a new bike.
So - in order to sell that bike privately - the seller has to drastically reduce the asking price to get rid. This occurs sufficiently often to create the ‘new market value’ This has a knock-on effect on the price of 2yr-old bikes and 3yr-old bikes to a lesser, but significant degree.
It used to be, that the ‘saving on new’ price of a 1yr-old bike only had drop to ‘that seems like a worthwhile saving’. Now it has to drop to ‘that makes more sense than £150/month’
Great for buyers of S/H bikes though - pick up a pristine 3yr old bike with full history, bung £400/yr on warranty/breakdown cover (inc EU) and suffer much milder depreciation.
Sure - it was always thus (that the smart buyers bought at 2-3yrs), but entry at that level got even-cheaper since the advent of PCP.
Even a local small computer retail/repair business (traditional sales were less-well-known brands, compact PCs and refurbished business laptops) has now got an Apple ‘franchise’ to sell MacBooks and iPads on basically - PCP !
I read recently (on another forum) that the returned PCP bikes are not the liability of the selling dealer - but become the headache of the Finance Company? I had previously thought that the dealer was left with the bike and had to juggle figs to make it all work for them? Anyone confirm or rubbish that?
Hope all that made sense?
Al